泰铢的灾难

20世纪70年代,东南亚国家利用成本优势,承接了部分美国制造业转移工程。外资的拉动刺激了当地经济飞速发展,这里面最大的受益者是泰国。谁也没有想到90年代中期,一场金融危机席卷了亚洲几个经济体,而泰国成为了当时的重灾区。

提起当年的泰铢贬值,很多人习惯的把索罗斯当成罪魁祸首,那么真的是这样吗?一个基金就可以挑战一个国家的货币安全吗?对此我的评价是,索罗斯只是财富的搬运工,更大程度是因缘附会如是关照。今天通过几个纬度来阐述下当年的历史,这一步一步是从开始就注定,索罗斯到时间去收割财富的一个因果。

1、  东南亚崛起之泰国奇迹

20实际80年代到90年代初,泰国经济经历了增长逆袭。从GDP角度来看,他们保持了年均8%以上的增长,其经济结构中制造业出口年增长30%。拆开数据的结构,这段时间泰国的经济增长几乎为出口拉动。我们从海关数据得知,那一段时间泰国制造业出口占据总出口比重由原来的36%提高到81%,制造业在GDP的比重由22%提高到了29%,泰国比较传统的出口项目农业占比逐渐降低由21滑落到11 。

泰国经济受益于美国落后产能的转移,通俗来讲就是产品设计在美国,其代工一块放在了东南亚一带。目的就是开发东南亚地区的廉价的劳动力和资源,活跃当地经济的同时美国企业因为降低了生产成本,在国际市场上的竞争力提升。那时候的泰国有点类似2000年后的中国大陆,其中的典型公司是台湾的富士康。说的直白些就是劳动密集型产业创造外汇,进而提升国内经济增长的一种模式。

东南亚国家为了守住来之不易的制造业,每个经济体都制定了较低的美元汇率巩固优势。在东南亚经济高速发展的这段时间内,美元为了缓解国内经济矛盾,采取了较为宽松的货币政策,美元的持续贬值间接提高了这些经济体的出口竞争力。时间进入1996年,美国人完成了两个经济体的收割(日本、苏联),国内经济强势反弹。美联储的货币政策开始收紧,这就导致锚定美元政策的东南亚各国被动加息,泰国是东南亚的典范所以也是受伤比较深的国家。

我们翻开泰国出口数据发现,从96年开始泰国的出口增速大幅下滑(汇率升值带来的影响),慢慢的由贸易顺差国变成了贸易逆差国。贸易赤字一般会传导到财政赤字,很不幸泰国遵守了这个一般规律。

劳动密集型产业有个致命缺陷,那就是生产过程中参与者不会有太多财富分享,通俗点来说就是工人得到的报酬有限。

96年年底泰国经济出现了潜在危机,主要表现为国家财政力不从心,民间财富积累有限。经济素有三驾马车之说,那就是投资、消费、贸易,泰国面对的是国家投资无粮民间消费无米的状态。此时要想摆脱潜在的困局,加大吸引外资是一个不错的选择。

2、  驱虎赶狼后发现,泰国自己是真正的羊

泰国政府为了刺激经济,吸引外资拿出了真金白银的政策,目的是为了刺激可能陷入困境的本国经济。现在总结政策主要有亮点,第一加快资本市场开放第二承诺高利率回报。相关政策一经发布,瞬时吸引了国际资本主义,但是闻到金钱血腥更多是投机机构。

泰国政府经济刺激政策真实想法是吸引外资投资实体经济,但是这些资金看到了高利率带来的无风险套利。(利差存在就会给热钱投机空间)大量热钱蜂拥进入泰国,他们的目的很明确,开放的金融市场短线投机对于热钱来说是欢快的世界。这些资金分别进入了股市、外汇等容易短期投机获利的领域。

此时的泰国政府为自己实事求是的政策而欣慰,快速流入的资金数字表明,政策见效很快。只是他们不清楚,这些资金在秘密的埋雷,目标就是用快刀切肉。这一批追逐投机的资金中,有一个叫量子基金的机构,他的当家人叫索罗斯,当布局完成后他一直在等待发动总攻。

1997年3月初,泰国央行宣布国内少数金融机构存在资产质量及现金流问题,谨防发生系统性金融风险。

这个消息的发布,对于索罗斯来说无疑是猎手发现猎物的马脚。对于善于捕猎的猛兽来讲,一旦有机会可乘,迅速出击一招致命就是本性。索罗斯马上下达作战命令,抛售所有筹码,并做空泰铢!

泰铢在众多资金的围攻下,开始大幅贬值。感受到巨大压力的泰国政府慌乱中决定干预汇率,拿出国家外汇储备,倾全国之力对抗投机资金的做空行为。泰国央行与新加坡组成联盟,调集120亿美金买入泰铢。另外用行政命令禁止国内金融机构对境外机构进行筹码输送,同时提高泰铢利率。

泰国政府的三板斧开始取得了巨大成功,顶住了短暂的压力迫使投机资金休战一个月。但是一个月后,以索罗斯为首的做空基金掉头重来,以强大的优势迅速耗尽了泰国外汇储备。没有弹药的泰国政府,只能接受泰铢贬值的命运。

当一切结束,泰国人发现其吸引外资的政策变成了彻底的宰羊运动,运气不好的是泰国是那只可怜的羊。

3、  泰铢贬值后的影响

泰铢犹如瀑布一样的贬值速度,犹如飞流直下三千尺般的壮观。泰国金融市场进入了混乱,而那些缔造泰国制造业崛起的企业纷纷在这个过程中破产。泰国的老百姓在这场经济灾荒中损失惨重,他们发现手中的泰铢要想保值要么换成强劲的美元,或者赶紧把纸币换成商品才能避免损失。

这个背景下,泰国的银行遭遇了挤兑潮,间接迫使泰国银行业出现倒闭风。整个泰国经济陷入了萧条,谁也想不到就在两年前,这还是一个经济发展势头良好,一派欣欣向荣的景象。泰国好像境内遭遇了一场飓风,风雨后留下了一片狼藉!

国际热钱洗劫完泰国后,拿着丰厚的战利品瞄向了下一个猎物。东南亚各国大多数被其洗劫,这个时期的印尼盾、菲律宾比索、缅甸元、马来币统统没能幸免。各国股市经历短时间暴涨后,纷纷大幅跳水。实体经济的工厂倒闭、银行破产、物价上涨、货币贬值就是那段时间的热点词语。

从1997年7月开始,国际热钱几乎横扫了东南亚,直接结果就是各国货币出现了大幅贬值。这些经济体的金融市场遭遇了严重冲击,这些国家的经济直接损失达到了1000亿美元,从此他们进入了经济衰退的潮流之中。

亚洲金融危机损失的1000亿美元当中,大部分被热钱瓜分!

结语:今天我们回顾这次20年前的金融危机,不免感慨万千。是索罗斯无所不能吗?理性的答案应该不是,首先是自身的经济结构,其次是左右不了的美元政策。当这些因素形成共振的时候,政府领导人一旦满脑子都是自救思维,其做出的决定可能适得其反。泰国就是活生生的例子!

索罗斯并不能发动大规模的财富洗劫,他只是一个成熟的猎手,一旦发现猎物一招致命!

In the 1970s, Southeast Asian countries took advantage of the cost advantage to undertake some American manufacturing transfer projects. The pull of foreign investment has stimulated the rapid development of local economy, the biggest beneficiary of which is Thailand. No one thought that in the mid-1990s, a financial crisis swept through several Asian economies, and Thailand became a disaster area at that time.

When it comes to the devaluation of the Thai baht, many people are accustomed to regard Soros as the culprit. Is that true? Can a fund challenge a country’s currency security? In my opinion, Soros is just a porter of wealth, and more importantly, such care is provided by fate. Today, we will explain the history of that year through several dimensions. This step is a cause and effect of Soros’s going to harvest wealth from the beginning.

1、 The rise of Southeast Asia: the miracle of Thailand

From the 1980s to the early 1990s, Thailand’s economy experienced a growth headwind. From the perspective of GDP, they maintain an average annual growth of more than 8%, and their manufacturing exports in the economic structure increase by 30%. Apart from the data structure, Thailand’s economic growth during this period is almost driven by exports. We know from the customs data that during that period, the proportion of Thailand’s manufacturing exports in total exports increased from 36% to 81%, the proportion of manufacturing in GDP increased from 22% to 29%, and the proportion of Thailand’s more traditional export projects in agriculture gradually decreased from 21 to 11.

Thailand’s economy benefits from the transfer of backward production capacity in the United States. Generally speaking, the product design is in the United States, and its OEM is in Southeast Asia. The purpose is to develop the cheap labor and resources in Southeast Asia, to activate the local economy, and to improve the competitiveness of American enterprises in the international market because of the reduction of production costs. At that time, Thailand was a bit like mainland China after 2000, and the typical company was Foxconn in Taiwan. To put it bluntly, it is a mode of labor-intensive industries to create foreign exchange and then promote domestic economic growth.

In order to keep the hard won manufacturing industry, Southeast Asian countries have set a lower dollar exchange rate to consolidate their advantages. During the period of rapid economic development in Southeast Asia, in order to alleviate domestic economic conflicts, the US dollar adopted a relatively loose monetary policy. The continuous depreciation of the US dollar indirectly improved the export competitiveness of these economies. Time into 1996, the Americans completed the harvest of two economies (Japan, the Soviet Union), the domestic economy rebounded strongly. The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve began to tighten, which led to the passive interest rate increase of Southeast Asian countries anchoring the US dollar policy. Thailand is a model of Southeast Asia, so it is also a country with deep injury.

We opened Thailand’s export data and found that since 1996, Thailand’s export growth rate has declined significantly (the impact of exchange rate appreciation), and gradually changed from a trade surplus country to a trade deficit country. The trade deficit is generally transmitted to the fiscal deficit. Unfortunately, Thailand abides by this general rule.

There is a fatal defect in labor-intensive industries, that is, there will not be too much wealth sharing among the participants in the production process. In a popular sense, workers receive limited remuneration.

At the end of 1996, there was a potential crisis in Thailand’s economy, which was mainly manifested in the lack of national financial strength and the limited accumulation of private wealth. The economy is known as the troika, that is, investment, consumption and trade. Thailand is facing the state of state investment, grain free private consumption and rice free. At this time, if you want to get rid of the potential difficulties, it is a good choice to attract more foreign investment.

2、  After driving out tigers and wolves, we found that Thailand is a real sheep

In order to stimulate the economy and attract foreign investment, the Thai government has put forward the policy of real gold and silver, which aims to stimulate the domestic economy that may be in trouble. Now, there are mainly highlights in the summary of policies. First, accelerate the opening of capital market and second, commit to high interest rate returns. Once the relevant policies were released, they attracted international capitalism instantly, but it was more speculative institutions that smelled the bloody money.

The real idea of Thailand’s economic stimulus policy is to attract foreign investment in the real economy, but these funds see the risk-free arbitrage brought by high interest rates. (the existence of interest margin will give hot money speculation space) a large number of hot money swarmed into Thailand, their purpose is very clear, open financial market short-term speculation is a happy world for hot money. These funds have respectively entered the stock market, foreign exchange and other fields that are easy to gain short-term speculative profits.

At this time, the Thai government was pleased with its pragmatic policy, and the rapid inflow of capital figures showed that the policy worked very fast. But they don’t know. These funds are secretly burying mines. The goal is to cut meat with a sharp knife. Among these speculative funds, there is an organization called quantum fund, whose leader is Soros. When the layout is completed, he has been waiting for the general attack.

In early March 1997, the Bank of Thailand announced that a small number of domestic financial institutions had problems in asset quality and cash flow, to guard against systemic financial risks.

The release of this news, for Soros, is no doubt that the hunter found the horse’s feet of prey. As for the beasts that are good at hunting, once they have a chance to take advantage of it, a quick attack is fatal. Soros immediately issued an order to fight, sell all chips, and short the Thai baht!

The Thai baht began to depreciate sharply under the siege of many funds. Feeling the huge pressure, the Thai government decided to intervene in the exchange rate in panic, put out the national foreign exchange reserves, and put the whole country’s efforts against the shorting of speculative funds. The Bank of Thailand and Singapore formed an alliance to mobilize US $12 billion to buy Thai baht. In addition, by administrative order, domestic financial institutions are prohibited from transferring chips to overseas institutions, and the interest rate of baht is increased.

The Thai government’s three board ax began to achieve great success, withstanding the short-term pressure to force a truce of speculative funds for a month. But a month later, the short fund led by Soros turned around and quickly exhausted Thailand’s foreign exchange reserves with a strong advantage. The Thai government, which has no ammunition, can only accept the fate of the devaluation of the baht.

When it’s over, Thais find that their policy of attracting foreign investment has turned into a complete sheep killing campaign. Unfortunately, Thailand is the poor sheep.

3、  Impact of devaluation of Thai Baht

The devaluation speed of the baht is like a waterfall, which is as spectacular as three thousand feet down the river. Thailand’s financial markets are in turmoil, and companies that have created Thailand’s manufacturing boom have gone bust in the process. Thai people lost a lot in this economic disaster. They found that if they want to keep the value of Thai baht, they can either change it into a strong dollar, or quickly change paper money into commodities to avoid losses.

In this context, Thai banks have encountered a run tide, indirectly forcing the Thai banking industry to collapse. The whole Thai economy has fallen into a depression. No one would have thought that just two years ago, it was a picture of good economic development momentum and prosperity. Thailand seems to have encountered a hurricane in its territory, leaving a mess after the storm!

After the international hot money ransacked Thailand, it took the rich spoils and aimed at the next prey. Most countries in Southeast Asia were ransacked by them, and the Indonesian rupiah, Philippine Peso, Myanmar dollar and Malay dollar in this period were not spared. After a short period of sharp rise, stock markets in various countries have plunged. The factory collapse, bank bankruptcy, price rise and currency devaluation of the real economy were the hot words during that period.

Since July 1997, the international hot money has almost swept Southeast Asia. As a direct result, the currencies of all countries have depreciated significantly. The financial markets of these economies have suffered a serious shock. The direct economic losses of these countries have reached 100 billion US dollars. Since then, they have entered the trend of economic recession.

Most of the $100 billion lost in the Asian financial crisis was divided up by hot money!

Today, when we look back on the financial crisis 20 years ago, we are filled with emotion. Is Soros capable? The rational answer should not be, first of all, its own economic structure, and second, the dollar policy that cannot be controlled. When these factors resonate, once government leaders are full of self rescue thinking, their decisions may backfire. Thailand is a living example!

Soros can not launch a large-scale plunder of wealth. He is just a mature hunter. Once he finds the prey, it will kill him!

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